State of Student Aid in Texas – 2021

Section 1: Texas Demographics

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Texas’ Future Depends on Addressing Educational Equity

From 2010 to 2050, Texas is expected to add 3.8 million more children under age 18 and 1.7 million more adults aged 18 to 24 — the traditional college age population. The population age 25 to 64 will grow by almost six million, while the numbers of those aged 65 and older will swell by more than five million. Despite the increase in the number of children and young adults, people age 24 and younger will actually drop slightly as a percentage of the population, from 28 percent to 27 percent. Meanwhile, people age 65 and older will increase from 10 percent to 18 percent.

As Texas changes from a majority-White to a more pluralistic state, and experiences an increase in the percentage of the elderly population, a significant difference emerges with respect to population by age. In 2050, 49 percent of children, 47 percent of 18- to 24-year-olds, and 42 percent of 25- to 44-year-olds will likely be Hispanic. By contrast, only 37 percent of those 65 and older are expected to be Hispanic. The African-American population will remain relatively stable, at 12 percent to 14 percent of each age group. Increasingly, the future of Texas, including its economic prosperity, as well as the expertise needed to run business, government, and infrastructure, will depend on the education of all populations including those racial/ethnic groups which historically have had lower incomes, higher rates of poverty, and lower likelihood of attending and completing college than Whites.

Texas Population by Age in Millions and Percentage of Total in Each Year: 2010 and 2050 (Projected*)

Texas Population by Age in Millions and Percentage of Total in Each Year: 2010 and 2050 (Projected*)

Projected* 2050 Population by Age and Ethnicity in Texas

Projected* 2050 Population by Age and Ethnicity in Texas

Source: Texas Demographic Center, “Texas Population Projections Program: 2018 Population Projections”, Population Projections for State of Texas by Age Group (https://demographics.texas.gov/Data/TPEPP/Projections/ ).

Texas Poverty Rate Declines, but Still Higher Than National Average

The prevalence of people in the U.S. living in poverty declined from 12.3 percent in 2017 to 10.5 percent in 2019. While Texas has the sixteenth highest poverty rate in the nation and a poverty rate higher than the national average, it saw its poverty rate drop by 2.1 percentage points during this time period. These data pre-date the COVID-19 pandemic, which has had a detrimental impact on poverty for people across the country. In 2019, poverty was defined as having an income of $25,926 or less for a family of four with two children, or $13,300 or less for an individual under 65 years old.

People in Poverty, States with Highest Rates (2019)

People in Poverty, States with Highest Rates (2019)

At 11.1 percent, Texas has the third highest poverty rate among the six largest states, preceded by Florida at 11.5 percent and New York at 12.5 percent. All of the six largest states and the nation overall saw a decrease in poverty rate between 2017 and 2019.

People in Poverty, Largest States (2019)

People in Poverty, Largest States (2019)

Source: Texas Demographic Center, “Texas Population Projections Program: 2018 Population Projections”, Population Projections for State of Texas by Age Group (https://demographics.texas.gov/Data/TPEPP/Projections/ ).

Texas Poverty Rates Vary Widely by Region

The 2018 poverty rate in Texas was 14.9 percent overall and 21.1 percent for children under 18; however, these rates vary widely by region. By a large margin, the Rio Grande region has the highest rates of overall and childhood poverty at 28 and 39 percent respectively – at least 11 percentage points higher than the next highest region. Because poverty disrupts housing patterns and makes educational attainment challenging, the disproportional poverty rates in the Rio Grande region will reduce college going rates absent student support initiatives. In all regions, the poverty rate for children was higher than for the total population.

In 2019, poverty was defined as having an income of $25,926 or less for a family of four with two children, or $13,300 or less for an individual under 65 years old.

Poverty Rate by Region (2018)

Poverty Rate by Region (2018)

Source: Definition of Poverty: U.S. Census Bureau, “Poverty Thresholds: 2019” (https://www.census.gov/data/tables/time-series/demo/income-poverty/historical-poverty-thresholds.html); Poverty rates by region: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service, “Poverty estimates for the U.S., States, and counties, 2018” (http://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/county-level-data-sets/download-data.aspx).

Texas Experiences Largest Increase in Homelessness Among Children Enrolled in School

Due to the devastating impact of Hurricane Harvey in September 2017, Texas had more than 230,000 homeless students enrolled in school in school year 2017-2018, double the number of enrolled homeless students in school year 2015-2016. This was a huge change compared to other large states and compared to the nation. Funding through the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) was insufficient to cover the costs of the extreme destruction of the natural disaster, extending homelessness for many families.

Nationwide, more than 1.5 million enrolled students were homeless during school year 2017-2018. Homeless students face struggles and barriers that students who are not homeless do not confront – limited access to digital resources, difficulty finding a space to study, potential transportation issues, and inadequate resources to be involved in school or extra-curricular activities, among other things. The added stress of taking care of basic needs can make it a challenge to focus on academics and reach the students’ full learning potential.

Percent Change in Child Homelessness from School Year 2015-16 to School Year 2017-18

Percent Change in Child Homelessness from School Year 2015-16 to School Year 2017-18

Source: Impact of Hurricane Harvey: Newsweek, Ballesteros, C. November 26, 2017, “Hurricane Harvey Victims: More than 20,000 Children in Houston are Homeless, Report Shows” (https://www.newsweek.com/hurricane-harvey-victims-homeless-fema-722640); Impact of Hurricane Harvey: Houston Chronicle, Ward, A. 2018, “Homeless after Harvey: For some, the historic flooding in Houston washed away shelters and security” (https://www.houstonchronicle.com/news/houston-weather/hurricaneharvey/article/Homeless-after-Harvey-For-some-the-historic-13171309.php); All Other: National Center for Homeless Education, “Federal Data Summary, School Years 2015-16 Through 2017-18, Education for Homeless Children and Youth” (https://nche.ed.gov/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/Federal-Data-Summary-SY-15.16-to-17.18-Published-1.30.2020.pdf).

Lack of Health Insurance Destabilizes Finances, Makes College-Going Precarious

About nine percent of Americans lacked health insurance coverage in 2019. The percentage is much higher in Texas. At 18 percent, Texas is approximately twice the national average. It has the highest percentage of any state, with Oklahoma coming in second at 14 percent.

Family health crises can be unpredictable, and the resulting financial disruption can derail college plans. While financial aid administrators can make mid-year adjustments using professional judgement, this requires students to make a formal appeal, and adjustments may still be insufficient to help the student stay in school.

People Without Health Insurance, Large States (2019)

People Without Health Insurance, Large States (2019)

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, “Health Insurance Coverage in the United States: 2019” (https://www.census.gov/library/publications/2020/demo/p60-270.html).

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